The conflict in Ukraine has significantly impacted the green energy industry around the world, especially in Europe. Many countries have decided to abandon energy resources from Russia, but quickly replacing Russian oil, coal and especially gas is not an easy task.

European authorities have reconsidered their position on nuclear and gas energy: these energy carriers are temporarily considered “sustainable” during the transition to renewable energy sources, which means that investment in them will not be prohibited. What prospects await green energy in the near future?

France, Italy, Germany and Austria have already had to reactivate coal-fired power plants as an alternative to Russian energy resources. Will the worsening relations between the West and Russia affect the prospects for the development of green energy?

Residents of Europe, on the eve of the next heating season, are buying heaters and saving money for utility bills, which have increased significantly compared to last year. In Germany alone, around 600,000 electric heaters were sold between January and June 2022, up 35% from the same period a year earlier. In the context of a gradual abandonment of Russian energy resources, German authorities fear an energy crisis in the winter. The electrical network in cities may simply not be able to withstand the significantly increased power of electrical equipment in apartments and houses.

At the end of July, gas storage facilities in Germany were only 67% full, but by the beginning of September the target of 85% for October 1 had been reached. Apparently, the use of coal instead of gas to generate electricity has made it possible to speed up the filling of gas storage facilities: on August 1, the Mehrum coal station with a capacity of 690 MW started operating in the northwestern part of Germany, and on August 29, it was joined by the Heyden 4 thermal power plant in Petershagen. The country's authorities promise that other coal-fired power plants will be launched in the coming weeks.

But in the current geopolitical situation, everything can change at any moment, so the voices of those who propose to continue the use of nuclear power plants are increasingly supported. At the beginning of the year, three of the six nuclear power plants operating in Germany were shut down. The remaining three stations must cease operation by the end of 2022, but this decision is likely to be reconsidered. Moreover, it is possible to resume operation of already shut down nuclear power plants if there is political will. Thus, it is possible that at the beginning of 2023 there will again be six operating nuclear power plants in Germany, whereas according to the plan this number should be zero. Various political forces have not yet come to an agreement on the issue of reactivating shutdown nuclear power plants and their subsequent return to operation. The launch of already shut down nuclear power plants will allow Germany to add 17 billion kWh to its energy treasury, which will save 2 billion cubic meters of currently so expensive gas.

In early July, the European Parliament rejected a proposal to exclude gas and nuclear energy from the plan for Europe's transition to a green economy. This means that these types of energy sources will be considered sustainable during the transition to renewable energy sources. The decision of the European authorities will certainly affect the fate of projects aimed at transitioning to green energy.

The Germans are trying to squeeze the maximum out of all available energy sources, even such non-ecological ones as coal. The country still operates dozens of coal-based power plants. Germany itself also produces brown coal – the country ranks third in the world in its production. To ensure uninterrupted operation of coal-fired power plants, the authorities decided to give priority to trains carrying coal at the expense of passenger transport. However, despite weekly news that Germany is restarting mothballed coal plants, statistics show that electricity generation from brown and hard coal plants has been falling since the beginning of the year. It is possible that production will increase in winter, and in current conditions there is a problem with transporting coal by river transport due to severe drought in the region. According to the plan for the transition to green energy, all coal plants in the country were planned to be closed during 2022–2023, but these dates will almost certainly be postponed.

They are also thinking about reactivating nuclear power plants in another part of the world—Japan. In July, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida called for nine of the 10 nuclear reactors still allowed to operate as quickly as possible. Last winter, the country faced an energy crisis, largely caused by the transition to green energy, so the authorities are taking proactive steps to prevent a repeat of the dire situation in the future. RES (renewable energy sources) still occupy only a small share of the energy consumption structure in Japan. Nuclear power plants shut down across the country – after the tragedy in Fukushima – are gradually being brought back into operation to prevent electricity shortages in the winter months.

Neighboring South Korea recently declared its commitment to peaceful nuclear energy. According to the government decree, by 2030 the share of nuclear energy in the overall energy system will be at least 30%. At the end of 2021, there were 24 nuclear power plants operating in the country, accounting for 27.4% of all energy generated. According to the authorities' plan, nuclear power plants will remain one of the main sources of energy for at least another 60 years.

So far, even in advanced Germany, the transition to green energy is not proceeding at the most impressive pace. By 2030, the number of electric vehicles in the country is planned to increase to 15 million, charging stations for them – to 1 million. As of July 2022, these plans have been implemented only by 5-6%. The situation with the transition to renewable energy sources – wind and solar – is a little better: onshore wind farms are already generating almost half of the planned capacity, but progress with offshore wind turbines and solar stations is somewhat worse.

In some European countries, authorities have made great strides in the transition to renewable energy sources. For example, in Sweden already in 2019, renewable energy sources accounted for more than half of the country’s total consumption, while the average share in the EU at that time was about 20% – approximately the same as in Germany.

Another obstacle to the transition to green energy is the rising prices of many metals and other related materials needed to produce solar panels, batteries and other equipment that modern energy production facilities require. Analysts at S&P Global in mid-July warned of the threat of a copper shortage that could disrupt global plans to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Moreover, the problem may be much broader: experts believe that in the 21st century, a shortage of this metal may become no less than the main destabilizing threat to international security.

An average electric car uses 83 kg of copper, which is four times more than a traditional internal combustion engine car. This means that the world's ambitious plans to switch to electric cars will require enormous amounts of copper. But this metal is also used in energy distribution networks, in the production of solar panels and wind generators. By 2035, copper demand could double compared to 2020. At the current level of copper ore production, the deficit will be 1 million tons by 2025, and will reach almost 10 million tons by 2035. To avoid a copper shortage, it is not enough to simply increase production and processing at existing mines and enterprises. It is necessary to open new mines and processing plants, but analysts do not yet see such plans.

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